Integrating Labour Markets and post-Pandemic Mobility
The Oxford-Cambridge Arc concept was borne out of a recognition that greater connectivity across the area could lead to significant economic gains.
The Cambridge Econometrics/ SQW study, conducted for the National Infrastructure Commission in 2016, found that there were a number of successful north-south economic corridors feeding into London, but very little in the way of east-west economic linkages. According to 2011 Census data, only 1.7 per cent of the resident workforce in the Central Area of the Arc worked in Oxford or Cambridge, versus 5.1 per cent in London. There is a consensus that, if these corridors and their respective knowledge-intensive labour markets could be better integrated, the national economic benefit from knowledge spill-overs could be huge.
However, exactly how this connectivity should be improved is the subject of more debate, particularly given the need to protect the local environment and transition to zero carbon. Hence, the proposed, and then withdrawn, Expressway plans, which would have improved connectivity but at significant environmental cost. The challenge is thus to find ways to increase connectivity while also improving the natural environment and supporting the transition away from fossil fuels. Decisions around infrastructure provision should take account of the Environment Principles as agreed by the Arc Environmental Group. These make clear that the concept of net environment gain should be factored in to any transport infrastructure decisions together with a commitment to ‘doubling nature’.
The recent acceleration – brought about by the pandemic – toward working from home and more flexible working provides part of the answer, in that greater connectivity is not just about physical journeys, but also encompasses digital solutions. A recent Department for Transport/Ipsos Mori survey found that two fifths (41%) of companies expect to make fewer business trips than before the pandemic. Plus, around a fifth of businesses (weighted by employment) expect to use increased homeworking going forward in the UK, a figure which rises to nearly half for the IT and communications sector. This shift can be consolidated through continued improvements to digital connectivity, particularly in more rural areas.
But physical journeys will still play an important role in the overall connectivity picture and, where possible, modes of transport beyond private car use should be encouraged. The Local Industrial Strategy for the South East Midlands set out an aim to pilot the use of demand-responsive transport and mobility as a service more broadly, and to link these to plans for wider residential and commercial growth at the outset. Active transport options are also important, as are first-mile-last-mile links connecting in to plans for East West Rail. And non-car modes of transport need to be made more reliable and attractive for users if they are to compete with car use; integrated ticketing across transport modes is an important component of this, as are schemes such as Smart Move Northamptonshire, which provides a single access point for live travel and transport information from a variety of sources and for all modes.
Yet it is important to recognise that a significant portion of the Arc lies within rural areas and that some private car use will still be required. The challenge here is to put in place the appropriate charging infrastructure, as well as to produce a sufficient quantity of renewable energy to power them, and to employ battery storage solutions to smooth out supply. The central area of the Arc is at the forefront of EV and hydrogen developments, with Milton Keynes having a higher EV charge point concentration than Inner London, Milton Keynes and Luton both being home to electric bus hubs, and with Cranfield University in Central Bedfordshire and Chelveston Energy Park in North Northamptonshire leading on hydrogen research and green hydrogen generation (and use in HGVs) respectively.
There is a key role for central and local government to strategically plan for – and, in some cases, financially underpin – the renewable energy production, charging infrastructure, public and active transport links, integrating ticketing and digital infrastructure that is needed to realise this vision for the future.
This will involve some retrofitting and/or upgrading of existing infrastructure, as well as new provision, and will also involve thinking creatively and ahead of demand about new regulatory frameworks that might be required (e.g. for hydrogen use).
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